Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Gold touches new high of $1,174 as dollar weakens

A weaker dollar carried gold prices to a new record on Monday and also boosted silver and copper to their highest levels of the year.


Oil prices
finished slightly higher, while agricultural futures fell.


Gold for December delivery rose as high as $1,174 an ounce before settling at $1,164.70, up $17.90, or 1.6 percent, from Friday's close. Year to date, prices are up 31.7 percent.


December silver rose to its highest close of the year, gaining 17 cents to $18.61 an ounce. Earlier, prices rose as high as $18.935, the highest since July 2008.


March copper futures also finished at a fresh 2009 high, rising 2.8 cents to $3.162 a pound. Prices touched a fresh 14-month high of $3.204 earlier in the session.


The latest surge in metal prices came as the dollar resumed its decline against other major currencies. The dollar, which rose late last week, has been on a steady decline since March as record-low interest rates encourage investors to buy stocks, commodities and other assets that have the potential to earn higher returns than cash.


A weaker dollar makes commodities less expensive for foreign buyers. Gold's tie to the dollar, though, is different from other commodities. The precious metal is seen as an inflation hedge and an alternative to a weak currency. Investors have been padding their portfolios with more gold to protect themselves from a further decline in the dollar.


"Where most people get off track is looking at gold as a mere commodity," said Nick Barisheff, president and CEO of Toronto-based Bullion Management Group, a precious metals investment company. Barisheff sees gold rising as high as $1,400 in the near term, and as high as $2,000 a year from now.


The dollar fell Monday after Federal Reserve official James Bullard said the central bank should continue to buy mortgage-backed securities after the program is currently scheduled to expire in March. That would help keep U.S. interest rates low, further pressuring the dollar.


The ICE Futures US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, fell 0.7 percent in afternoon trading.
Though the spike in gold could be setting the market up for a pullback, most analysts say the long-term trend is a weaker dollar and higher gold. A continued drive for deficit spending from governments around the world will push gold prices even higher, Barisheff said.


In other Nymex trading, December platinum rose $25.70, or 1.8 percent, to $1,464.40 an ounce.
Crude oil for January delivery rose as high as $79.92 in early trading due to the weaker dollar before settling up 9 cents at $77.56 a barrel.


Other energy futures were little moved. Gasoline futures fell 0.12 cent to $1.9794 a gallon, while heating oil futures rose 0.43 cent to $1.9799 a gallon.


On the Chicago Board of Trade, March wheat futures dipped 2.25 cents to $5.785 a bushel, while corn for March delivery fell 3.75 cents to $4.0325 a bushel.
January soybeans lost 4 cents to $10.42 a bushel.


Among other soft commodities, January sugar slipped 0.33 cent to 21.57 cents per pound, while cocoa for December delivery fell $3 to $3,242 a ton.

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Indian shares provisionally close down 0.6 pct

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Indian shares provisionally dropped 0.6 percent on Tuesday as investors took profits in stocks such as Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) after a recent rally.

The 30-share BSE index .BSESN provisionally ended down 0.57 percent or 98.06 points at 17,082.12, with 17 components losing.

The 50-share NSE index .NSEI provisionally closed down 0.5 percent at 5,078.65.

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Monday, November 23, 2009

Indian shares rise 0.4 pct early, Reliance rallies

Indian shares rose 0.4 percent early trade on Monday, led by gains in Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) that made an offer to buy controlling interest in U.S.-based bankrupt petrochemicals company LyondellBasell Industries. [ID:nN21473364]

At 9:55 a.m. (0425 GMT), the 30-share BSE index .BSESN was up 0.44 percent at 17,096.45 points, with 27 components advancing.

Energy giant Reliance rose 1.3 percent to 2,152.80 rupees, after sources said it was offering about $12 billion to buy a controlling interest in LyondellBasell Industries.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Nifty hits 5100 led by RIL; ITC hits all-time high

At 11:55 hours IST, the Nifty touched the 5,100 mark after a month. Reliance Industries (RIL) was the leading counter with a gain of 3%, the company has made a preliminary, non-binding cash offer to buy Dutch company LyondellBasell (LB). There were reports that the company is planning USD 10 billion offer.

ITC gained 2.7% and hit an all-time high of Rs 268. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and ONGC were the other leading counters.

Brokerages views on RIL - CLSA in their report said the deal would be positive if enterprise value of LB is below USD 12 billion. However, Kotak Institutional report said there would be no real synergies between RIL and LB; they retained sell rating with a target of Rs 1,750/share.

On the sectoral front, auto, metal, power, banking (except SBI), cement and select pharma stocks were seeing buying interest. However, selling in Bharti Airtel (down 4%), Reliance Communications (down 1%), Idea Cellular (down 1.7%), Infosys, SBI and Hindalco (down 2%) limited the gains to some extent.

The Sensex went up 139 points to 17,160 and the Nifty rose 48 points to 5,100. The market breadth strengthened a bit further; about 1,767 shares advanced while 1,010 shares declined on the BSE. Nearly 655 shares were unchanged.

The Nifty November future was trading with 7 points premium. Among the broader indices, the BSE Midcap Index was up 0.4% and Smallcap up 1%.

In the midcap space, GMDC, BF Utilities, HMT, MRF and Aurobindo Pharma gained 6-8% while KGN Industries slipped 10%. Balrampur Chini, J&K Bank, Shree Renuka and Info Edge lost 3-4%.

In the smallcap space, Tata Sponge Iron, Mastek, Prime Securities, Indian Metals and Sahara One went up 7-12% while PVP Ventures, Webel SL Energy, Dhampur Sugar, Raj Oil Mills and Kalyani Steels declined 3-4.7%.

Markets inch higher, RIL leads gains

The key benchmark indices were trading higher today led by advances in Reliance Industries. The Sensex was up 81 points at 17,103 levels and the Nifty rose 0.5 per cent to 5,078.
Buying interest was seen in most sectors and oil & gas, metals and auto stocks led the gains. The oil & gas index on the BSE rose 1 per cent and the BSE auto index advanced 0.9 per cent. The metal index also surged 0.7 per cent.

Among the Sensex stocks, RIL was the top gainer. The stock rose 1.6 per cent in early trades. The company has offered more than $12 billion in cash to acquire a majority stake in bankrupt international petrochemical group LyondellBasell Industries.

Grasim, ACC and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers in the group. The stocks were up over 1 per cent each.

Bharti Airtel, however, was the biggest loser in the pack. The stock shed 2.4 per cent.

Asian markets also rose moderately. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.5 per cent and China’s Shanghai Composite was also in the green turf. Markets in Japan were, however, closed today.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Govt plays down PM's US trip, delinks it from Obama's China visit

Ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to US — the first state visit that the Barack Obama administration is hosting since taking over in January — the government on Friday tried to play down any big expectations from the trip even as it hoped for progress on some important bilateral issues, including the civil nuclear cooperation agreement between the two countries.

While Manmohan Singh, in an interview to The Washington Post, said he would push for a liberalisation of the technology transfer regime to enable quick implementation of civil nuclear cooperation agreement, government sources said pending issues in the nuclear deal were unlikely to be completed during this visit.

A reprocessing agreement is one of the last impediments in the implementation of the nuclear deal. It is learnt that the two sides are already holding consultations to reach an agreement. "The implementation of the 123 agreement is an ongoing process. We are well within the timeline agreed by the two countries to complete the process. Our respective delegations are discussing the pending issues, including the agreement over reprocessing rights," Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said.

Singh's five-day visit starting on Sunday has generated a lot of interest especially since it comes immediately after Obama's trip to China. A reference to Indo-Pak relations in the joint statement issued during Obama's visit to China has added a new dimension to Manmohan Singh's trip.

Rao, however, said Singh's visit should not be juxtaposed with Obama's China trip. "President Obama's visit to China does not cast any shadow over Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to US. The visit stands on its own and is aimed at building an enduring partnership between our two countries," she said.

Officials said no major agreements were likely to be finalised during the visit though some memoranda of understanding would be signed, prominent among those being one on counter-terrorism and another on renewable energy. An MoU over IPRs in agriculture and another on a bilateral education initiative are also likely to be signed. The two countries are expected to come up with a joint statement on climate change

Advani wants to quit as Oppn leader: Venkaiah

SENIOR BJP leader M Venkaiah Naidu on Friday said BJP parliamentary party leader L K Advani has told party leaders that "he didn't wish to continue in the position till the tenure of the 15th Lok Sabha" and that "he would like to hand over the responsibility to some other colleague". Naidu added in the same vein that "the party would go by his (Advani's) choice about the time (of his handing over the baton to his successor) and the person". He also said the "party had not finalised the name of the party president so far", and that the person "would be chosen unanimously at an appropriate time".

In his statement, Naidu — known for his proximity to Advani — said: "Advani has been elected Leader of the Party for the 15th Lok Sabha in spite of his reluctance. He told us that he does not want to continue till the tenure of 15th Lok Sabha and would like to hand over the responsibility to some other colleague. The party is keen to have his leadership and guidance and will go by his choice about the time and the person."

On a new party president, Naidu said: "Different names are being discussed in the BJP for the presidentship of the party. No name was suggested or rejected by the RSS and no name has been finalised by the party so far. The process of consultation is on and there will be unanimous choice of the next president at an appropriate time."

After RSS's recent intervention in BJP affairs was objected to by a group of central BJP leaders, leading the RSS to issue a rare clarification on the matter, Naidu also dwelt on the BJP-RSS dynamics. "The BJP and the RSS do share ideological bond. But structurally and functionally we are independent and autonomous. The same has been repeatedly emphasised at the highest level by the RSS as well as the BJP. Even yesterday there was a categorical policy statement from Nagpur. We discuss matters of mutual and national interest. But unless asked for, the RSS never proffers any advice to the BJP," he said in his statement. Naidu also added that he was not in the race for the party president's post as he had been the party president once.

India will be among top three economies by 2050: US think tank

Washington, Nov 21 (IANS) Discerning a dramatic shift in the world's economic balance of power, a US think tank has projected that by 2050 India would become one of the three largest economies of the world with the US and China.

Growing at a projected rate of 6.19 percent between 2009 and 2050, India would grow most rapidly among the G-20 group of world's leading economies the making Indian economy 97 percent as large that of the US in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), two experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote.

In an article on 'The G-20 in 2050', in the November 2009 issue of International Economic Bulletin of the think tank they noted that in dollar terms, India's GDP is expected to increase by 16 times from the current $1.1 trillion to $17.8 trillion by 2050.

'The world's economic balance of power is shifting dramatically,' noted experts Uri Dadush, the director of Carnegie's

International Economics Programme and Bennett Stancil a Junior Fellow in the Programme.

By 2050, the United States and Europe, long the traditional leaders of the global economy, will be joined in economic size by emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, they wrote.

China will become the world's largest economy in 2032, and grow to be 20 percent larger than the United States by 2050, the two experts predicted suggesting 'over the next forty years, nearly 60 percent of G20 economic growth will come from Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Mexico alone.'

Over the next 40 years, the G20 GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent, rising from $38.3 trillion in 2009 to $161.5 trillion in 2050, in real US dollar terms.

Nearly 60 percent of this $123 trillion dollar expansion will come from Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico (BRIC+M), Dadush and Stancil projected.

'These five economies will grow at an average rate of 6.1 percent per year, raising their share of G20 GDP from 18.7 percent in 2009 to 49.2 percent in 2050.'

China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world's three largest economies in 2050. Their total GDP, in real US dollar terms, will be over 70 percent more than that of the other G20 countries combined, they said.

In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion-the current world GDP-but the wide disparity in per capita GDP among these three will persist.

Of the G20 countries, India is predicted to grow most rapidly, but its current modest size will prevent it from surpassing either China or the United States in real US dollar terms. India's PPP GDP, however, will be 97 percent as large as that of the United States by 2050.

A growing population - India is expected to become the world's most populous nation in 2031 - and an average exchange rate appreciation of 0.9 percent per year will push annual GDP growth to an average of 6.2 percent, the two experts said.

India's US dollar GDP will balloon to $17.8 trillion in 2050, sixteen times its current $1.1 trillion level, Dadush and Stancil predicted.

Despite impressive GDP growth in the developing world, relative per capita GDP (or wealth) will remain low. By 2050, the five largest economies, in both real US dollar and PPP terms, will include three of the G20's poorest-India, China, and Brazil, they said.

In 2009, by contrast, seven of the G20's larg

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Nifty loses 65 points, ends below 5K

Indian markets ended lower on Thursday, with the Nifty falling 65 points to finish at 4,989. Indian markets remained weak for the most of the session in the absence of any triggers but selling pressure increased from the latter half after European markets opened weak.
On the BSE, Sensex lost 213 points to finish at 16,785, after trading between 16,785 and 17,004. The overall breadth on the BSE was negative. Losers outnumbered gainers by 1672 to 1067 while 80 stocks remained unchanged.

Realty stocks plunged in today’s trade. The BSE realty index fell 4.3 per cent. IBREL, HDIL and Unitech lost over 5 per cent each.

Metal and banking stocks also declined today. The metal index on the BSE dropped 1.8 per cent and the banking index was down nearly 2 per cent. Among the banking stocks, Indian Overseas Bank shed 4.2 per cent while Kotak Mahindra, Yes Bank and Union Bank of India fell over 3 per cent each.

In the Sensex pack, JP Associates was the top loser. The stock ended down 4.5 per cent at Rs 226. Reliance Infra, DLF and Hindalco were the other major losers, down over 3.4 per cent each.
JSW Steel reversed early gains to end 0.6 per cent lower today. JSW Steel and Japan's JFE Steel Corporation today entered into a strategic collaboration to build and operate an integrated steel plan in West Bengal and in the area of automotive steel.

Wind turbine major Suzlon Energy gained 2.5 per cent to close at Rs 1.8 per cent. The company today said it will sell its 35 per cent stake in the Belgian company, Hansen Transmissions.

Asian stock markets turned in a mixed performance Thursday as signs of weakness in the U.S. economy aggravated worries about the strength of the global recovery. European markets fell in early trade.

It was the second day of middling trade in Asia and followed modest losses on Wall Street. Oil and gold prices were down slightly, while the dollar fell against the yen and rose against the euro.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 127.33 points, or 1.3 percent, to 9,549.47 — its seventh straight day of decline as investors succumbed to jitters about a possible glut of new bank shares after Mitsubishi UFJ announced its capital raising plans. The bank's shares fell 3.7 percent.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 197.17 points, or 0.9 percent, to 22,643.16.
South Korea's Kospi, however, added 1 percent to lead the region and China's Shanghai index rose 0.5 percent.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Sensex choppy with negative bias; banks, realty decline

he Sensex opened the session with a negative bias and was volatile in trade. The markets were consolidating for the third day in a row. Private banking, realty, select infrastructure, oil & gas and auto stocks were under pressure. However, select pharma, power and cement stocks were seeing buying interest.

At 9:56 am, the Sensex was down 40 points at 16,957 and the Nifty declined 9.5 points at 5,045. However, the CNX Midcap rose 14 points at 7,203. About 537 shares advanced while 318 shares declined on the NSE.

Among the frontliners, Infosys, DLF, Jaiprakash Associates, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Capital, GAIL, BPCL, ONGC, ABB, M&M, Unitech and BHEL were the losers.

However, Hero Honda, Reliance Power, Suzlon Energy, Ranbaxy Labs, Cipla, Sterlite Industries, Grasim, Tata Motors, Maruti and Jindal Steel & Power were seeing buying interest.

Midcap space:

BPL rose 7% and Samtel gained 4%.

Bharati Shipyard and ABG Shipyard get SEBI nod for open offer for Great Offshore. All three stocks shot up 4-5%.

Varun Shipping and Essar Shipping rose 1-2.5%.

However, Hindustan Motors fell 1%

Global Cues:

Asian markets were trading mixed. Kospi rose 1.1% and Straits Times was up 0.9%. Taiwan Weighted and Jakarta were marginally in the green. However, Nikkei slipped 1.4% and Hang Seng declined 0.4%. Shanghai was flat.

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Markets flat on weak global cues

The markets were trading flat in the early deals today amid weak cues from world markets. The Sensex dropped 43 points to 16,954 levels and the Nifty shed 0.2 per cent to 5,043.

While metal and auto stocks rose, IT counters were under some pressure. Among the Sensex stocks, Hero Honda Motors led the gainers. The stock gained 1.6 per cent in early trades. Grasim, Sterlite and ITC were the other major gainers in the pack. However, ICICI fell over 1 per cent today.

In US, disappointing forecasts from technology companies and an unexpected drop in home construction added to worries about the economy and sent stocks modestly lower.

The Dow fell 11.11, or 0.1 percent, to 10,426.31, after sliding as much as 77 points in morning trading. The broader S&P 500 index slipped 0.52, or 0.1 percent, to 1,109.80, while the Nasdaq fell 10.64, or 0.5 percent, to 2,193.14.

Asian stocks were trading mostly lower today following losses in US markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.5 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi, however, was up 1.1 per cent.

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IT stocks gain in flat markets

The key benchmark indices were trading flat in the early deals amid mixed trends in the overseas markets. The Sensex was down 55 points at 16,994 levels and the Nifty lost 0.3 per cent to trade at 5,046.

While some buying interest was seen in IT and pharma stocks, realty and capital goods counters were under pressure.

Among the Sensex stocks, Infosys was the biggest gainer. The stock rose 1.5 per cent in early trades. M&M, Sun Pharma and Bharti Airtel were the other major gainers in the pack. However, HDFC, Hero Honda and L&T were among the main losers in the pack. The stocks fell more than 1 per cent each.

In US, stocks finished an erratic session mixed on Tuesday as higher commodity prices lifted energy and materials shares.

Major stock indices had their third straight advance, reaching new 13-month highs, but there were more declining shares than advancers on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 30.46, or 0.3 percent, to 10,437.42. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1.02, or 0.1 percent, to 1,110.32, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.93, or 0.3 percent, to 2,203.78.

Asian markets were trading mixed today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 1.1 per cent and Nikkei in Japan dropped 1 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi, however, gained 0.7 per cent.



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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Indian shares fall 0.2 pct as Asia erases gains

MUMBAI, Nov 18 - Indian shares were trading 0.2 percent lower early on Wednesday as traders took profits after the market rallied more than 7 percent this month. Sentiment was weighed as Asian markets erased early gains.

At 9:55 a.m. (0425 GMT), the 30-share BSE index .BSESN was down 0.19 percent at 17,018.13, with 26 components falling.

The 50-share NSE Index .NSEI was down 0.3 percent at 5,048.20 points.


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BSE Sensex falls 0.2 pct as Asia erases gains

MUMBAI 18 Nov - The BSE Sensex was trading 0.2 percent lower early on Wednesday as traders took profits after the market rallied more than 7 percent this month. Sentiment was weighed as Asian markets erased early gains.

At 9:55 a.m. (0425 GMT), the 30-share BSE index was down 0.19 percent at 17,018.13, with 26 components falling.

The 50-share NSE Index was down 0.3 percent at 5,048.20 points.

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Reliance Ind plans aggressive exploration

MUMBAI - Energy major Reliance Industries plans an aggressive exploration campaign, investments in petrochemicals and overseas acquisitions as India's top company prepares itself for the next phase of growth.

The company will work towards attaining global scale for its conventional energy platform -- petrochemicals, refining and oil and gas exploration -- and invest in its new businesses such as retailing and alternative energy, chairman Mukesh Ambani said at the company's annual meeting of shareholders.

"The business transformation initiative would create a Reliance that is able to scale up existing businesses; adds new business both organically and inorganically," said Ambani, who is India's richest man.

At 12:48 p.m., the shares were down 1.1 percent at 2,125 rupees in the Mumbai market that was down 0.1 percent.

Reliance, founded by Ambani's father Dhirubhai, a school teacher's son, has grown rapidly as it diversified from making textiles to polyester to refining to oil and gas exploration, but a sluggish global economy seen its profit fall in the past for four quarters.

A high-profile legal battle over a deal to sell gas to Reliance Natural Resources, led by Mukesh's estranged younger brother Anil, at below the price set by the government, has also unnerved investors.

Ambani did not mention the gas dispute in his speech.

He said while the global financial crisis had fundamentally changed the world of business, Reliance expected it would have both strong growth and a larger global footprint.

"Exploration and production business would give the company a much higher growth trajectory in the coming years," Ambani said.

In April, Reliance began pumping gas from its find in the Krishna Godavari basin off India's east coast, which is expected to almost double the country's gas supplies at peak production.

Gas production has crossed 6 billion cubic metres and the field is slated to plateau production by the second half of 2010. Oil production has reached 2.8 million barrels with daily peak production expected by the end of the year, Ambani said.

This production is from just three of the 19 discoveries in the area, he said.

The company also plans to set up a petrochemical complex in Jamnagar in western India that would nearly double its current capacity to 4 million tonnes a year.

"Now that the oil and gas petroleum refining projects are commissioned, Reliance will work on making this world-class project a reality."

It already has the single largest refining complex in world at Jamnagar in Gujarat, with a capacity to process 1.24 million barrels per day.

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Sensex consolidates; IT, metals gain, banks, realty dip

The Sensex started the day mildly on a positive note and was trading in a narrow range, around previous closing values. The US markets rallied but Asian markets were quiet in trade. Banking, realty and select oil & gas stocks were under pressure while metals were gainers.

At 9:56 am, the Nifty fell 10 points to 5,047 and the Sensex declined just 32 points to 17,001. The broader indices were also flat, as about 422 shares advanced while 310 shares declined on the NSE.

Among the frontliners, ONGC, SBI, ICICI Bank, Unitech, Suzlon Energy, DLF, HCL Tech, Reliance Industries (Its AGM today), Idea Cellular and Reliance Capital were seeing selling pressure.

However, Jaiprakash Associates gained 1.7%. Infosys, Siemens, Cipla, Ambuja Cements, Tata Steel, Sterlite Industries, SAIL and Jindal Steel & Power were the gainers in the early trade.

Midcap space:

Auto ancillary stocks like Amtek Auto, Subros and Apollo Tyres went up 1.5-5%.

Noida Toll Bridge was up 4%.

Aviation stocks were quiet in trade, ahead of FDI in Aviation meeting today.

Lanco and IVRCL Infrastructure were down 1.5%

WWIL and Zee News fell 1.5-2.5%.

Global cues:

Asian markets were trading weak. Hang Seng, Nikkei, Taiwan Weighted, Kospi and Straits Times declined marginally. Shanghai and Jakarta were flat.

The US markets hit fresh 13-month closing highs post Bernanke's comment, weak dollar and US retail sales. Ben Bernanke signaled plans to leave rates low for a while leading to weakness in dollar and gain in commodities.

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BSE Sensex opens marginally up, then swings slightly lower

MUMBAI - The BSE Sensex (^BSESN : 16954.94 -77.57) opened marginally higher on Tuesday but quickly turned slightly negative, tracking the trend seen in regional shares.

At 9:58 a.m. (0428 GMT), the 30-share BSE index was down 0.15 percent at 17,001.92 points, with 17 components trailing. It opened 0.12 percent higher.

The 50-share NSE (^NSEI : 5036.35 -21.7) Index was down 0.22 percent at 5,047,55 points.


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